Eagles Bye Week Fallacy

Posted: October 29, 2011 in Uncategorized
Tags: , ,

A lot has been made over the years about the Philadelphia Eagles winning streak after bye weeks. So let’s actually look into this streak in detail as opposed to from a distance:

1999- Strange to think about it, but remember when there were byes in week 1 and week 17?! The Chargers had the first bye in ’99., and the Browns had the week 17 bye. The Eagles were off week 16 and won after their bye against the eventual SB winning Rams in week 17 because Vermeil rested Warner, Faulk, etc.

2000- Following another week 16 bye the Eagles beat a Bengals team that finished 4-12 and had their bye in week 1.

2001- Eagles had a week 5 bye this year and beat the Giants 10-9 on MNF. The Giants went 7-9 that season.

2002- A week 6 bye here, and in week 7 the eagles beat the Buccaneers who won the SB that year. Great win here.

2003- Week 3 bye for the eagles this year in the first year at the Linc. This season after the bye they beat the Bills . Key thing here as the eagles were 0-2 entering the bye and finished 12-2. Very impressive. But the Bills only went 7-9 another team with a losing record.

2004- The SB year. The eagles were 4-0 before the week 5 bye. The team they beat after the bye this year? Carolina who went 7-9. So we are at the halfway point of the 12 game streak and the eagles have played 1 divisional team and 4 teams with losing records, 1 team that rested their stars, and 1 good win vs TB.

2005- Week 6 bye for the eagles this season who were 3-2 at that point but finished 6-10. Their post-bye opponent? The Chargers who finished at 8-8 that year.

2006- The eagles were 4-4 coming into their week 9 bye. And after that they faced a Redskins team that finished 6-10. Second divisional game after a bye so far.

2007- 1-3 is how the eagles came into the bye week and beat the J-E-T-S 16-9. The Jets that year finished at 4-12.

2008- The year of the Bengals tie. Eagles were 3-3 prior to the bye week and after that beat the Falcons and rookie QB Matt Ryan. The Falcons went 10-6 that year. Good win.

2009- After a week 3 bye the eagles won against TB again. If you are scoring at home, that is 2 divisional games, and 2 games against the Bucs. TB finished at 3-13 that year.

2010- Last year the eagles were 4-3 going into the bye week and beat Indy at home. The Colts went 10-6 that year. Quality post bye win #3.

So when you break it down, the 12 game streak really is fraudulent based on the quality of opponents that they have faced.

  1. otis says:

    It’s an excellent point but you should factor into your math that Andy generally sucks against the AFC, no matter the team or their record. So any post bye win against an AFC team, even a bad one, should count at least half.

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