Atom Bombs Week 6

Posted: October 11, 2012 in Fantasy Football, Football, humor, sports
Tags: , , ,

So here we are, almost at the halfway point of the regular season and with that, we can see some things shaking out. What things? Well, with 8 of the 10 teams all within 2 games of first place this should be a close race to the end. Also if you remember in an earlier post I made a joke about over reacting to the start of the season on proven players, and with where we are now, the stars are re-establishing themselves as 5 of the leagues keepers are in the top 15 in points scored. The other 5? There is still time. For example though, Shady McCoy has had a rough start with as many fumbles as TD’s. Interesting stat I saw on McCoy today: McCoy has been used in pass blocking schemes 40% of the time this year as opposed to 26% last year. Extrapolate that out and it amounts to 76 fewer pass routes. Wow. What else is coming into form are some surprises too. Anybody see Stevan Ridley having more value at this point than LeSean McCoy? Nope, me either. Or Andrew Luck and Alex Smith both having more points than Roethlisberger, Vick, or Rivers? Hmmm. I didn’t think so. But these things happen. Here’s the thing, all you can do is try to formulate a guess based on past performance, the matchups, and current way that they are playing. Sometimes you get it right, sometimes you don’t. Like everyone else, I am not right all the time- as the Topes recently, and correctly pointed out about Tony Gonzalez- but the difference is I put everything out there (or here, I guess) for everyone to see and read. And that is why I take it. If you put it out there, you better take it. Funny how few remember the good calls, but that is another story for another time. I was wrong about a 36 year old TE on a team with a lot of offensive options. But remember too that the Topes desperately wanted to bet me that Chris Johnson would out-perform Calvin Johnson (2 guys on my own team unfortunately for CJ1K’s sake) at the draft. As of now, Megatron has almost double the points. But I don’t rail against you or anyone else about these things for 2 reasons (unless you count this, then I reckon I just did. Sorry!). First- like I said, I do the work, and sometimes I am right, sometimes not. That is why I also call myself out on it every week. And second- it doesn’t take much to second guess everyone after the fact. In fact, it’s very easy to wait for a guy to do great then say “I told you so” as opposed to doing this week after week after week after week… I will tell you now, some of the predictions below WILL BE WRONG. I cannot predict the future. If I could I would be a professional gambler. I am not. This is all a guessing game, but it breaks down to being a game. So enjoy it and have fun!  My apologies if this seemed to rail against one person- it was more of a statement larger than that, however I was able to use the example here for context. Topes, don’t get too emotional about it, relax and keep kicking butt!

On a sad note, Alex Karras RIP. Of course he was only fantasy relevant when Chalk had the Lions Defense in his 1962 league. Of course to the rest of us he was George Papadapolis or Mongo from Blazing Saddles. As he eloquently opined in that film… “Mongo only pawn… in game of life”.

Warriors vs Isotopes: Probably the most intriguing matchup of the week since it features two 4-1 teams. Everything went right for the Topes last week as they put up a monster 141 points. While Dave survived a scare due to an invisible Superstar Jimmy Graham. Not sure if Dave got to see any of the games, since there may have been a WWE, Dr. Who, or Lifetime movie marathon on. Or something… The Law Firm in week 2 faced the same Browns D without Joe Haden and got 11.70 points. Since then? A combined 18 points. I would expect him to fall just short of the projected 13.09 points. Call me crazy, but I kind of like Big Ben over Matty Ice this week. Harvin has been sensational so far. I was down on him more for the migraines than for talent. I get them too at times (ocular ones) and it can be crippling. As long as he is healthy, and AP isn’t 100%, he’ll be great. Pettigrew can only go up, but this week will be a test- not much Dave can do with Graham on a bye. For the Topes- I just don’t know about V Jax. So inconsistent it drives you nuts. I think he will get double digits this week. WR is the issue here with the Topes as major disappointment thus far Jennings is out again, and Holmes on the IR he is reduced to Manningham. I know he is on a bye but I found this interesting- 2 defensive players on the Bears have more TD’s than Forte. Weird. Like Gonzalez here as the Raiders have been weak against TE’s. I do like Murray, the Ravens D is showing some age. Is it a jinx for Dave or a reverse jinx for the Atom Bombs brother??? Who knows?! LOTW- Star Warriors!

Armadillos vs Phinest: Special thanks go out to the Dillos who emailed our offices last week to make sure we knew that he would, in fact be picking up a QB so I could get the picks in! All the stats say that Stafford will struggle this week against the Eagles. But… coming off of the bye I think he will put up his points. Then again, I thought the same for Roethlisberger last week… Odd stat- the Eagles will play back to back teams coming off of byes before going on their own bye week. Who do they play after that? An Atlanta team that also shares a bye with the Eagles. Odd. They have to wait until week 9 to play a team NOT coming off of a bye! And that is on the road against the Saints. Speaking of byes, with 4 guys on a bye, the Dillos seem to have the roster made up for them! McCoy is projected at 20.36 when he has averaged 13.9 for the year so far. Interesting. Not big on Ridley against the Seahawks. Doug Martin has all but disappeared since week 1. For the Phinest I like Antonio Brown here, wish I could jump all in on Andre Johnson again, but that offense is run run run. Down on Steven Jackson against the Miami run D- better than you would think. Pick here- Dillos in a close one.

Vikings vs Blitzers: For the SPV, I do like Vick’s matchup this week, if Alex Smith and Jake Locker can get to over 20 points vs the Lions, SupaFelon should be able to also. Maclin though is an enigma. Martellus Bennett is banged up and may not go. Even if he does- he won’t be at 100%. But with no backup at that position… I do like Reggie Bush and I think Starks will get enough touches to at least get to 6-7 points. Some solid, not spectacular matchups for the Blitzers. Brady is on the road in Seattle which is tough to play in just ask Aaron Rodgers. Have to love Wallace against the Titans. And the AARP-like RB tandem of Frank Gore and Michael Turner should be fine. Argh, this is where HAVING to pick an upset gets me. Screw it- SPV upset Special!

Cowboys vs Sapornos: For the Cowboys I like Matthews and Mendenhall this week, Denver has been suspect against RB’s (about 20 ppg over the past 3 weeks) and the Titans are horrible. I know he is currently riding the bench here, but I would get him in. McFadden has been a disappointment so far also. In the realm with CJ1K, and Vick. He should be due for a good game soon. Week in week out you all know my feelings on DeSean. I hate having a guy so dependent on having that one big play. Richardson has been a beast. That will continue this week. Despite losing Cassel I still like Dwayne Bowe. Why? Brady Quinn baby!!!! Really down on the Pornos RB’s. AP is hurting, and I think both Brown’s (Andre and Donald) are out. Kind of like Ponder here. The Skins are horrible against the pass. Andre Roberts is a burner, kind of similar to DeSean in that way. LOTW bonus for the Cowboys!

Atoms vs LOD: I will tell you what I really don’t mind blow-out losses. Both in reality when I am playing, or in fantasy. When only 2 of your guys meet or exceed projections there really is nothing that you can do. Just one of those weeks, and move on. It’s when you only lose by a point or two that you really start second guessing moves that you made or didn’t make. Clearly, I did not have that problem last week! Yes, I know Bradshaw is going up against the Niners Run D but I am limited as well. Hey the 200 yards is a clear aberration but the other choice is Chris Johnson against the Pittsburgh D. On a Thursday game and if you miss on those, if can screw up your whole weekend. Looks like Alex Smith’s hand is ok, and with Cam on a bye, gotta roll with it. My outcome may depend on Vick. Ballard that is! Seriously though, I do like his matchups this week and the next 2- that’s why he is on the team. I still may swap out my Caucasian WR’s Hartline and Decker. Now sure yet. Down on Alfred Morris this week, the Vikings are tough. Minnesota I mean, not the South Philly ones! Haha, I kid! Love Reggie Wayne- old guy still producing. As long as RGIII is playing he should be ok to get close to the projections. Would have been nice to see an RGIII vs Cam show, but bye weeks yo. Don’t think Brandon Lloyd gets to the 9 points here. Ok, you know the drill—-Pick LOD!

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